BOSTON, MAA five-year report prepared by market-research specialist Strategy Analytics (www.strategyanalytics.com), "GaAs Industry Forecast 2007-2012," predicts that the year-on-year growth of the gallium arsenide (GaAs) industry will slow to 9 percent in 2008, but that the industry is set to break the $5 billion mark in 2011. The report projects that overall the GaAs device market will grow at a compound annual average growth rate (CAAGR) of 9 percent through 2012. The primary growth driver will be requirements from cellular handsets, with Wi-Fi broadband wireless products representing the second largest market for GaAs devices. The associated market for GaAs substrate wafers is projected to be $492 million in 2012, with demand for six-inch wafers increasing as the demand for four-inch wafers decreases.
As Asif Anwar, director of the Strategy Analytics GaAs and Compound Semiconductor Technologies service, observes: "In line with previous analysis, wireless infrastructure, satellite and DBS markets will drive demand for GaAs discretes, though the overall market will show only a 1 percent CAAGR from 2007 to 2012. Meanwhile, the market for digital GaAs ICs actually showed year-on-year growth for the first time in several years as a result of demand from the 10 Gb/s fiber-optic markets." As Anwar confided, "GaAs component demand is skewed toward MMIC solutions, with some limited demand for discretes as well." The report is based on extensive supply-side and user-based research of the GaAs industry, and presents the Strategy Analytics analysis and forecast for the vertical GaAs market supply chain from bulk substrates through to epitaxial substrates to MMIC, discrete and digital ICs. In a separate report, "Point-to-Point Radio GaAs Market 2007-2012," the research firm predicted that point-topoint radio shipments will increase at a CAAGR of 8 percent, to exceed 1.5 million units in 2012. Radio cellular backhaul will continue to be the primary market for point-to-point radios, with other applications, such as trunking, enterprise and public safety, making up the balance. Cellular backhaul shipments will be driven by wireless network expansions as a function of cellular subscriber growth and replacement of existing links to accommodate the higher bandwidth requirements of next-generation networks. On a regional basis, much of the demand will come from Africa, the Middle East, and the Asia-Pacific areas.